Predicting the future of mobile phone technology
Wired’s Joanna Glaser has seen the future, or at least asked a few folks who should know what it’s going to bring (their job title being ‘futurologist’). It makes interesting reading, and most of it is of the cringe-worthy “they’re not still banging on about that” variety - you know, such as video phones. Seriously - how long have video phones been pitched as the way everyone will communicate in the future? And now they’re here, in their 3G guise, who uses ‘em? No-one, that’s who (remember that, when you think about buying into Three’s forthcoming flotation!).
Anyway, said futurologists aren’t talking about video phones, they’re talking about simplicity, mobile socialization and speech recognition (yes, speech recognition - file that one under “they’re not still banging on about that are they?”) I feel a rant coming on! Read more on my ideas of the future after the jump.
Simplicity
Glaser gets a quote from Ian Pearson, futurist in residence at BT, the UK’s dominant telco, who claims that “…most people buy a device for a particular purpose. They neither want nor care about all the extra capabilities. We’ve done 20 years of adding functionality, and 99 percent of that functionality isn’t needed. There will be an enormous market over the next several years for really simple stuff.”
Great - that’s just what you want to hear about the future of devices! The irony is this quote appears on the same page that contains a link about “futurist fears end of innovation” - and it’s not the same futurist! But if one futurist predicts simpler tech, then the other futurist certainly has a point.
Mind you, this is from the same company with such vision it sold off its mobile phone arm to pay off its debts (giving us the not-exactly unsuccessful O2), and then tried to sue various US ISPs when it thought it had a patent on hyperlinks and therefore owned the technology of the web! Simplicity, my arse!
Mobile Socialization
Focusing on the effect of mobile phones on our social lives, Glazer suggests future mobile apps might include “…mapping programs that show us whether anyone we’d like to see is nearby. Or a mobile reference modeled on Wikipedia that can tell us if the restaurant on the corner is any good.”
Not thinking too far afield here, are we?! The first ‘future’ app already exists to some degree with Jabberwocky, which promotes ‘urban community connections’ by letting mobile phones communicate with each other promiscually using Bluetooth. And the second future app is merely a mash-up of what currently exists:
- Wikipedia itself is already available on a mobile phone via JOCA;
- Google Local enables you to search for local businesses, with reviews too, if needed;
- New services, such as AllIsBlue, connect the real world to the web via your mobile using SMS;
- and new technologies, such as RFID, which will soon become incorporated into mobile phones, will provide the same service without the hassle of typing anything into your mobile phone.
It doesn’t take too much effort to see that these currently disparate services will very soon converge.
Speech Recognition
Finally, we get to most cringe-worthy part: Speech recognition. Glaser quotes Ronald Gruia, “author of the blog Technology Futurist and emerging communications program leader at consulting firm Frost & Sullivan”, who comes up with this gem:
“Speech-recognition technology will be instrumental in enabling new mobile services…it’s only a matter of time before speech-enabled mobile apps for tasks like composing e-mail while driving can be commonplace.”
Oh come on, this is hardly going to set the world on fire. Most phones already offer the facility to dial a number using voice, but who actually uses it? The reason voice recognition never took off with computers is because the human brain thinks differently when talking than it does when typing. Thus the way you speak differs from the way you write. Why will this be any different with mobile phones? Fine for niche areas like driving, but that’s not exactly going to herald forth a revolution is it?
I’m unimpressed. I thought Wired thought more out of the box than this. MobSharing surely has the potential for greater social change than voice recognition! Texting has already shown how dramatically mobile phones can change society, while mobile phone cameras and the decidely nasty phenomenon of happy slapping have shown the unexpectedly negative side-effects new features can introduce. Mobile phones have virtually unlimited feature potential that can have a huge effect on society, both positive and negative. Surely futurologists can think of something better than voice-recognition?!
Feel free to comment if you can think of better examples of future mobile phone gadgets/features/services/apps. In the meantime, I’m off with my thinking cap to see what I can come up with. Watch this space - my business card may very soon have ‘futurologist’ stamped on it!
