Google Android to sell 400,000 units in 2008

Having returned from my hols just in time for the big Google Android announcement that’s expected on Tuesday, it seems the whole mobile blogosphere’s abuzz with Android news. With bloggers arguing over the likely success or failure of the first Android phone, the HTC Dream, market research group Strategy Analytics have waded into the debate by estimating that the Dream could sell as many as 400,000 units before the end of 2008.

However, although 400,000 units sounds a lot, it’s small compared to the huge number of smartphones that are shipped annually…

According to Neil Mawston, of Strategy Analytics, “We forecast 10.5 million smartphones to be sold in the U.S.during Q4 2008. We estimate smartphones with Google’s Android operating system, led by HTC of Taiwan, will reach 0.4 million units in the quarter, for a 4 percent market share. Android is a relatively late entrant and it will join an increasingly crowded market alongside Blackberry, Microsoft, Apple, Palm, Symbian and LiMo.”

Late is indeed the word, as the Dream isn’t expected to ship until October 20th. Worse, with the iPhone enjoying runaway sales and still benefitting from the halo of cool that surrounded its original hype, not to mention an 18 month lead in the race to be the king of smartphones, Google really do have their work cut out to overtake Apple’s uberphone.

The Android Benchmark

Ultimately, though, I think they’ll succeed, at least over the course of the next two years. The Dream is just the first mobile phone to run on Google Android, which, remember, is an operating system, and not a phone. As such, the Dream isn’t the only mobile phone that will be based on Android, and HTC, makers of the dream, are not the only company working on Android phones. Motorola, Samsung and LG, to name just three, are also working on their own Android phones.

Combine at least four major smartphone manufacturers with the halo of cool that Google also enjoys, add to the mix the open nature of the Android platform, which is in stark contrast to the closed platform of the iPhone, and Android has a real chance of significant success further down the line.

We’ll know more about the features of the HTC Dream this Tuesday, but ultimately, the success of the Dream will not make or break Android. As such, see the Dream as a benchmark for Android phones that other manufacturers will seek to beat. Whatever happens, though, 2009 looks set to see the mother of all battles in the smartphone arena.

[Source: EETimes]